Detroit S-Corp, $3.8M revenue, $2.4M capex decision. 5-year 3-scenario model built. SBA application package prepared. Loan approved.
01The Situation
The owner had been running this auto parts manufacturer for 11 years with revenue at $3.8M and the plant running at 94% capacity, turning down orders. A second production line costing $2.4M would double throughput. His bank asked for a 5-year model before considering the SBA loan. His prior accountant said the numbers look good but could not produce the documentation needed.
02What We Did
We rebuilt a clean P&L and balance sheet and modeled 47 individual assumptions across revenue, costs, overhead, and debt service, all documented with source and rationale. Three scenarios: base, best with two new OEM contracts, and worst with a major customer reducing orders 30%. Even in the worst case, the loan was serviceable. That was the key finding that unlocked SBA approval.
Breakdown
| Scenario | Yr 1 | Yr 3 | Yr 5 | Gross Margin | CapEx Payback | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Best Case | $4.2M | $6.8M | $7.8M | 38% | 2.6 years | |
| Base Case | $3.8M | $4.9M | $5.6M | 36% | 3.4 years | |
| Worst Case | $3.1M | $3.6M | $4.1M | 31% | 5.1 years |
Production line now operational. Throughput increased 80%. Both OEM contracts in the best-case scenario converted within 6 months of opening.
Want results like these?
Book a free consultation — we'll tell you exactly what we'd do.