A San Antonio commercial contractor with $8.2M revenue had zero forward visibility. Our 12-month rolling backlog forecast identified a $680K cash gap 6 months before it would have hit.
01The Situation
The owner had been running the business for 16 years on experience and instinct. He had 18 active projects, a reliable backlog, and a good reputation. But every year, there were two or three months where cash was tight in ways that felt random. He would cover it with his credit line and move on. He had never understood why those months were consistently tight.
When we looked at the project billing schedules, the pattern was not random at all.
02What We Did
We built a project-by-project revenue recognition schedule: billing milestones or draw schedule, percentage complete curve, and cash inflows by month. Overhead and subcontractor costs modeled against the same timeline.
The forecast identified a $680K cash shortfall in month 6, driven by four large projects all entering low-billing phases simultaneously. With six months of lead time, the owner renegotiated billing schedules on two of the four projects, reducing the cash gap from $680K to $180K. He has not touched his credit line in 14 months.
03Client Impact
The owner had assumed the annual cash stress was just the nature of the construction business. It was not, it was a predictable, fixable pattern he had been experiencing for years without understanding it. Finding the gap 6 months out gave him time to fix it instead of survive it.
Breakdown
| Project | Contract Value | % Complete | Rev Remaining | Completion | Cash Timing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Medical Office A | $1,840,000 | 42% | $1,067,200 | Q3 2025 | Milestone-based |
| Retail Center B | $2,240,000 | 18% | $1,836,800 | Q4 2025 | Monthly draw |
| Warehouse C | $1,120,000 | 67% | $369,600 | Q2 2025 | Completion |
| Office Fit-Out D | $680,000 | 8% | $625,600 | Q3 2025 | Monthly draw |
| 8 Additional Projects | $4,840,000 | Various | $2,840,000 | Various | Mixed |
| TOTAL BACKLOG | $10,720,000 | 28% avg | $6,739,200 | 12-mo span | Mixed |
What changed
12-Month Rolling Backlog Forecast Built
All 18 active projects mapped. Revenue recognition, billing milestones, and cash timing modeled for each.
$680K Cash Gap Found 6 Months Out
Root cause: milestone clustering. Pattern had been causing annual cash stress for years.
Two Project Billing Schedules Renegotiated
Monthly draw schedules negotiated for two milestone projects. Cash gap reduced to $180K.
No Credit Line Used in 14 Months
Cash management now proactive, not reactive. Owner reviews 12-month forecast monthly.
The owner had assumed the annual cash stress was just the nature of the construction business. It was not, it was a predictable, fixable pattern he had been experiencing for years without understanding it. Finding the gap 6 months out gave him time to fix it instead of survive it.
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